January 2010 Market Report

The Atlanta housing market ended the year on a positive note. However, the strength in October & November did not follow through into December. This may be a reflection of the housing stimulus ending and then being reinstated, but the overall bad economy remains a negative factor for housing demand.

There were 622 closings for single family attached in December. This was a 20.3% increase over December 2008 and was the 3rd consecutive monthly year-to-year double digit percentage increase. Out of the last 34 monthly periods the number of closings declined in 26 out of the first 27 months. But, out of the last 7 months there have been 5 months with monthly year-to-year increases in closings.

Single family detached closed 3,357 homes in December. This was a 3.9% year-to-year percentage decrease, but after lags are reported it will probably be an increase. Closings in December are usually greater than in November. However, 2009 will be negative for only the 2nd time over the past 15 years.

Closings for all single family in 2009 were 52,474 or a decrease of 4.6% from 2008. The last time yearly closings were less than 2009 occurred back in 2001. The 2009 closings were also far below the record high back of 81,071 back in 2006.

The average sale price for single family attached in December 2009 was $155,819. This was 7.9% below December 2008 and marked the 25th consecutive year-to-year monthly decline in price. The average sale price was never above $160M in any month of 2009 but the last time it was below $160M before 2009 was February 2001.

The average sale price for single family detached was $202,135 in December. This was unchanged from the same year ago period, but more than $82M below June 2007’s all time high.

The average sale price for all single family in 2009 was $190,682. This was 14% below 2008 and almost $64M below 2007’s all time high. The last time the yearly average price for all single family was below 2009’s average was back in 1999, TEN years ago.

The average sale price for both single family detached and attached were down 13.8% & 14.9%, respectively, from 2008. The last time an average price was lower for both categories was in 1999.

There were 62,300 expired listings for all single family in 2009. This was more than 23M below 2008’s record of 85,446. There were 22,697 withdrawn listings for all single family in 2009. This was more than 11M below 2007’s record of 33,860.

It is usually a very good sign when there are less expired and withdrawn listings, but for 2009 we need to also take into account the much reduced inventory during 2009 versus 2007 and 2008.

There were less than 45,000 homes/units on the market at the end of 2009. This is far below the end-of-month record of 72,000 homes/units on the market at the end of August 2007. The last time the end-of-month inventory for all single family was below December 2009 was December 2005.

I predict housing will be up the first two quarters in 2010, because of the extended housing stimulus. However, Georgia’s unemployment was just announced for November and it was a record high 10.3%. I believe this may continue to climb and signals a possible double dip recession the second half of 2010. Call your state representatives, write Washington, and let your voice be heard to get this economy going.

Thank you,
Steve Palm Smart Numbers